Hibernian FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$2.6K
$22.68
55¢ → 78.5¢
+43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 57.6¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$10.38 | 52% 16262-14802 (31064) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 42¢ | $286.42 | $293.24 | +$6.82 | 50% 8797-8727 (17524) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 78.2¢ | $116.76 | $118.6 | +$1.84 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $27.45 | $27.91 | +$0.46 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 56¢ | $112 | $16.14 | +$1.86 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $6.13 | $6.29 | +$0.16 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $2.32 | $3.49 | +$1.16 | 55% 43485-35791 (79276) |
Invested
$2,109
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$10.38
Record
52%
16262-14802 (31064)
Invested
$286.42
Value
$293.24
PnL
+$6.82
Record
50%
8797-8727 (17524)
Invested
$116.76
Value
$118.6
PnL
+$1.84
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$27.45
Value
$27.91
PnL
+$0.46
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$112
Value
$16.14
PnL
+$1.86
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$6.13
Value
$6.29
PnL
+$0.16
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.32
Value
$3.49
PnL
+$1.16
Record
55%
43485-35791 (79276)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.