Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtic FC, while the market favors Hibernian FC (70%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtic FC (50%) · Celtic FC at 31¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Celtic FC31¢Hibernian FC69¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Celtic FC

Consensus Traders

Celtic FC 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$85.38

Smart Money Entry

34¢ → 30.5¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCeltic FC at 31%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtic FC

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hibernian FC 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtic FC31%

Hibernian FC70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtic FC3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,289

Combined PnL+$44.93

Hibernian FC3 traders

Total Value$406.42

Total Shares563

Combined PnL+$40.45

Celtic FC — 50%Hibernian FC — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Celtic FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Hibernian FC) and the top 1000 (3 on Celtic FC) disagree here.

whaleCeltic FC 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrCeltic FC 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedHibernian FC 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Celtic FC 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Celtic FCavg 33.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$9.15	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
SN SnakeBall	Hibernian FCavg 64.1¢	$330.63	$371.53	+$40.89	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Hibernian FCavg 69.6¢	$310.51	$309.59	-$0.92	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
└ Hibernian FC leg	Hibernian FCavg 69.6¢	$210.08	$193.1	-$16.98
└ Celtic FC leg	Celtic FCavg 31¢	$100.43	$116.49	+$16.06
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Celtic FCavg 36.5¢	$77.24	$122.82	+$45.58	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
RN1<$100	Hibernian FCavg 73¢	$32.39	$31.95	-$0.44	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Celtic FCavg 38¢	$37.24	$27.44	-$9.8	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
VeryLucky888<$100	Hibernian FCavg 62¢	$37.86	$2.94	+$0	58% 31642-22900 (54542)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Celtic FC

Invested

$1,343.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$9.15

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

SnakeBall

Hibernian FC

Invested

$330.63

Value

$371.53

PnL

+$40.89

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

fooooolARB<$100

Hibernian FC

Invested

$310.51

Value

$309.59

PnL

-$0.92

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

Both legs:

Hibernian FC$210.0869.6¢-$16.98

Celtic FC$100.4331¢+$16.06

UpTheBluesCTR

Celtic FC

Invested

$77.24

Value

$122.82

PnL

+$45.58

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

RN1<$100

Hibernian FC

Invested

$32.39

Value

$31.95

PnL

-$0.44

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Celtic FC

Invested

$37.24

Value

$27.44

PnL

-$9.8

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

VeryLucky888<$100

Hibernian FC

Invested

$37.86

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

Research grade

NeutralCeltic FC at 31%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Celtic FC

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Hibernian FC 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Celtic FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Hibernian FC) and the top 1000 (3 on Celtic FC) disagree here.

whaleCeltic FC 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrCeltic FC 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedHibernian FC 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Celtic FC 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtic FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.