Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 98¢ · $33K held · ended Oct 25

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

-$435.61

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 97.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$28.0K

Total Shares29,496

Combined PnL+$103.12

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares12,475

Combined PnL-$538.73

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 94.9¢	$25.5K	$25.4K	-$53.12	93% 713-53 (766)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$390.63	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.6¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$24.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.6¢	$568.6	$983.35	+$414.74
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 19¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$76.96	50% 191-188 (379)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 88.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$96.41	50% 7758-7812 (15570)
RN1	Noavg 79.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$60.09	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$629.72	$608.13	-$21.59	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.6¢	$464.44	$434.48	-$29.96
└ No leg	Noavg 90.2¢	$165.28	$173.65	+$8.36
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$370.17	$399.2	+$29.03	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.2¢	$230.48	$234.44	+$3.96
└ No leg	Noavg 80.3¢	$139.69	$164.76	+$25.07
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 18.9¢	$854.13	$235.3	-$618.83	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$56.1	$55.85	-$0.25	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$30.35	$35.46	+$2.02	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$21.09	$22.2	+$1.11	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1	$1	+$0	55% 4838-4027 (8865)

Momo63

Invested

$25,490.3

Value

$25.4K

PnL

-$53.12

Record

93%

713-53 (766)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,835.92

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$390.63

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

Both legs:

No$1,267.3281.6¢-$24.11

Yes$568.611.6¢+$414.74

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,462.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$76.96

Record

50%

191-188 (379)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,328.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$96.41

Record

50%

7758-7812 (15570)

RN1

Invested

$1,068.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$60.09

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$629.72

Value

$608.13

PnL

-$21.59

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

Both legs:

Yes$464.445.6¢-$29.96

No$165.2890.2¢+$8.36

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$370.17

Value

$399.2

PnL

+$29.03

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

Both legs:

Yes$230.485.2¢+$3.96

No$139.6980.3¢+$25.07

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$854.13

Value

$235.3

PnL

-$618.83

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$56.1

Value

$55.85

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.35

Value

$35.46

PnL

+$2.02

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.09

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$1.11

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.