Will Hibernian FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 83¢ · $847 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$847.27
$1.54
80.6¢ → 82.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 81.1¢ | $472.64 | $480.53 | +$7.89 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 80¢ | $190.44 | $191.63 | +$1.19 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $78.62 | $72.63 | -$6 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $53.72 | $53.72 | +$0.34 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $37.82 | $38.06 | +$0.24 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $11.48 | $9.68 | -$1.81 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.16 | $0.84 | -$0.32 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
Invested
$472.64
Value
$480.53
PnL
+$7.89
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
Invested
$190.44
Value
$191.63
PnL
+$1.19
Record
50%
7758-7812 (15570)
Invested
$78.62
Value
$72.63
PnL
-$6
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
Invested
$53.72
Value
$53.72
PnL
+$0.34
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$37.82
Value
$38.06
PnL
+$0.24
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$11.48
Value
$9.68
PnL
-$1.81
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$0.32
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.