Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 29

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Tue, Sep 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$29

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 69.5¢

-11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,338

Combined PnL+$89.87

No3 traders

Total Value$668.41

Total Shares3,643

Combined PnL-$118.87

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Udonsan	Yesavg 79.6¢	$670.64	$706.72	+$52.74	77% 163-49 (212)
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR	Noavg 20.7¢	$594.67	$503.71	-$91.07	— 1-5 (6)
HE HerrieDavis	Yesavg 74.8¢	$406.66	$443.79	+$37.14	37% 1908-3254 (5162)
AJ AJSVCTR	Noavg 25.4¢	$182.59	$158.39	-$24.2	36% 13223-23096 (36319)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$9.9	$6.3	-$3.6	50% 881-885 (1766)

Udonsan

Yes

Invested

$670.64

Value

$706.72

PnL

+$52.74

Record

77%

163-49 (212)

0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR

Invested

$594.67

Value

$503.71

PnL

-$91.07

Record

—

1-5 (6)

HerrieDavis

Yes

Invested

$406.66

Value

$443.79

PnL

+$37.14

Record

37%

1908-3254 (5162)

AJSVCTR

Invested

$182.59

Value

$158.39

PnL

-$24.2

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$3.6

Record

50%

881-885 (1766)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.