Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.0K
$14.64
81.1¢ → 82¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
285h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 80.9¢ | $448.08 | $533.97 | +$9.07 | 82% 1708-377 (2085) |
 Udonsan | Noavg 82.3¢ | $223.25 | $222.51 | -$0.74 | 77% 163-49 (212) |
 GollumGekko<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $94.79 | $98.39 | +$3.6 | 69% 2048-907 (2955) |
 petehegsethCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $81.2 | $83.91 | +$2.71 | 83% 19-4 (23) |
 Porx<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $50.85 | $67.25 | +$0 | 66% 1426-740 (2166) |
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$448.08
Value
$533.97
PnL
+$9.07
Record
82%
1708-377 (2085)
UdonsanInvested
$223.25
Value
$222.51
PnL
-$0.74
Record
77%
163-49 (212)
GollumGekko<$100Invested
$94.79
Value
$98.39
PnL
+$3.6
Record
69%
2048-907 (2955)
petehegsethCTR<$100Invested
$81.2
Value
$83.91
PnL
+$2.71
Record
83%
19-4 (23)
Porx<$100Invested
$50.85
Value
$67.25
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
1426-740 (2166)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.