Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$2.4K
$30.94
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Yesavg 49.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$55.14 | 67% 4119-1993 (6112) |
KR KrackenSrusterCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $744.07 | $729.46 | -$22.2 | 65% 480-253 (733) |
 PorxCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $192 | $192 | -$2 | 66% 1453-753 (2206) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.