Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 42¢ · $1K held · ends May 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.1K
$42.08
40.6¢ → 41.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
448h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $859.34 | $894.06 | +$34.72 | 50% 872-876 (1748) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 42.3¢ | $181.1 | $146.83 | +$4.8 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
 Gluckyklucky<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $44.46 | $44.86 | +$0.4 | 82% 441-100 (541) |
KR KrackenSruster<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $32.48 | $32.48 | +$1.45 | 65% 477-253 (730) |
88 881112CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $7.6 | $8.4 | +$0.7 | 37% 543-907 (1450) |
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$859.34
Value
$894.06
PnL
+$34.72
Record
50%
872-876 (1748)
Invested
$181.1
Value
$146.83
PnL
+$4.8
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Gluckyklucky<$100Invested
$44.46
Value
$44.86
PnL
+$0.4
Record
82%
441-100 (541)
Invested
$32.48
Value
$32.48
PnL
+$1.45
Record
65%
477-253 (730)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0.7
Record
37%
543-907 (1450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.