Russia coup attempt in 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$5.3K
$198.79
93.5¢ → 97.1¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 94¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$93 | 67% 4123-1994 (6117) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$87.08 | 77% 10999-3355 (14354) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 90.9¢ | $208.05 | $222.44 | +$14.39 | 66% 1104-562 (1666) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $41.74 | $46.01 | +$4.32 | 72% 474-182 (656) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.