Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 39¢ · $734 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$733.71
$3.92
37.9¢ → 38.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 37.4¢ | $225.39 | $228.91 | +$3.51 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $207.48 | $202.16 | -$5.32 | 50% 10896-11050 (21946) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 37.8¢ | $103.66 | $104.1 | +$0.44 | 53% 15228-13430 (28658) |
 timebrotime | Yesavg 61¢ | $100 | $101.64 | +$1.64 | 67% 869-427 (1296) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 36.6¢ | $93.25 | $96.9 | +$3.65 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
Invested
$225.39
Value
$228.91
PnL
+$3.51
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Invested
$207.48
Value
$202.16
PnL
-$5.32
Record
50%
10896-11050 (21946)
Invested
$103.66
Value
$104.1
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
15228-13430 (28658)
timebrotimeInvested
$100
Value
$101.64
PnL
+$1.64
Record
67%
869-427 (1296)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$93.25
Value
$96.9
PnL
+$3.65
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.