Sepsi OSK vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 1.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 100¢ · $772 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
1 arb excluded
$772.19
-$21.96
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 23.8¢ | $415.83 | $252.9 | -$162.93 | 51% 22075-21479 (43554) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 75¢ | $114.36 | $138.76 | +$24.4 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 23.8¢ | $301.47 | $114.15 | -$187.32 | |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 97¢ | $266.26 | $247.04 | -$19.21 | 76% 2822-894 (3716) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 24¢ | $196.32 | $196.32 | +$0 | 50% 11010-11181 (22191) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $50.1 | $48.1 | -$2 | 60% 40137-26767 (66904) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $27.47 | $27.47 | -$0 | 58% 37814-27550 (65364) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 23.2¢ | $1.1 | $0.35 | -$0.74 | 55% 2167-1782 (3949) |
Invested
$415.83
Value
$252.9
PnL
-$162.93
Record
51%
22075-21479 (43554)
Both legs:
Invested
$266.26
Value
$247.04
PnL
-$19.21
Record
76%
2822-894 (3716)
Invested
$196.32
Value
$196.32
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
11010-11181 (22191)
Invested
$50.1
Value
$48.1
PnL
-$2
Record
60%
40137-26767 (66904)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$27.47
Value
$27.47
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
37814-27550 (65364)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.74
Record
55%
2167-1782 (3949)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.