Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FCV Farul Constanţa win on 2026-10-26?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 32¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.2K
$109.54
47¢ → 31.5¢
-33% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $296.54 | $392.87 | +$96.33 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 49¢ | $343.49 | $357.5 | +$14.02 | 52% 1355-1270 (2625) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 52¢ | $215.14 | $211.01 | -$4.14 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $94.67 | $94.67 | -$0 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 30.5¢ | $84.65 | $86.08 | +$1.42 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $39.75 | $38.25 | -$1.5 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $8.38 | $11.78 | +$3.41 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$296.54
Value
$392.87
PnL
+$96.33
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
us391CTRInvested
$343.49
Value
$357.5
PnL
+$14.02
Record
52%
1355-1270 (2625)
Invested
$215.14
Value
$211.01
PnL
-$4.14
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
Invested
$94.67
Value
$94.67
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$84.65
Value
$86.08
PnL
+$1.42
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$39.75
Value
$38.25
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.38
Value
$11.78
PnL
+$3.41
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.