Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-10-26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 78¢ · $44 held · ended Oct 25

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$44.47

Combined PnL

$3.55

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$37.72

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$1.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.75

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$2.52

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$31.5	$32.76	+$0.84	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$3.13	$5.65	+$2.52	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 75¢	$4.77	$4.96	+$0.19	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.1	$1.1	-$0	55% 4845-4030 (8875)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$32.76

PnL

+$0.84

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$2.52

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.