Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-10-24?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$19.5

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 77.5¢

+74% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$405.99

Total Shares1,583

Combined PnL-$13.87

No3 traders

Total Value$510.89

Total Shares1,161

Combined PnL-$5.63

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$397.54	$374.6	-$22.93	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
CA Cannae	Noavg 44.6¢	$337.48	$332.69	-$4.78	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$201.7	$200.27	-$1.43	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.4¢	$147.95	$146.52	-$1.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$53.75	$53.75	-$0
VeryLucky888	Noavg 44¢	$176	$176	+$0	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$103.53	$103.96	+$0.43	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58¢	$54.81	$52.92	-$1.89
└ No leg	Noavg 42¢	$48.72	$51.04	+$2.32
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$11.51	$20.78	+$9.28	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$8.53	$8.38	-$0.15	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$2.28	$2.22	-$0.06	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$2.2	-$0.85	63% 22715-13447 (36162)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$397.54

Value

$374.6

PnL

-$22.93

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Cannae

Invested

$337.48

Value

$332.69

PnL

-$4.78

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$201.7

Value

$200.27

PnL

-$1.43

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Both legs:

No$147.9544.4¢-$1.43

Yes$53.7556¢-$0

VeryLucky888

Invested

$176

Value

$176

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$103.53

Value

$103.96

PnL

+$0.43

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

Invested

$11.51

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$9.28

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.85

Record

63%

22715-13447 (36162)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.