Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$1.1K
$543.65
48.8¢ → 91.5¢
+87% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FI firegold | Yesavg 54¢ | $550.44 | $953.08 | +$402.64 | 59% 295-202 (497) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $8.78 | $134.34 | +$125.56 | 48% 4142-4564 (8706) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $22.07 | $37.52 | +$15.45 | 50% 108-110 (218) |
Invested
$550.44
Value
$953.08
PnL
+$402.64
Record
59%
295-202 (497)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$134.34
PnL
+$125.56
Record
48%
4142-4564 (8706)
Invested
$22.07
Value
$37.52
PnL
+$15.45
Record
50%
108-110 (218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.