Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$4.4K
$438.06
89.4¢ → 99¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seutervoinen | Noavg 89.7¢ | $3.1K | $3.4K | +$332.41 | 85% 300-55 (355) |
 RememberAmalek | Noavg 88.3¢ | $842.8 | $945.45 | +$105.52 | 56% 954-754 (1708) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $9.8 | $9.9 | +$0.13 | 72% 3476-1328 (4804) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.