Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes77¢No23¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$0.02

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 77¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,284

Combined PnL-$0.89

No3 traders

Total Value$968.77

Total Shares3,099

Combined PnL+$0.86

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 75¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$12.62	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 25.1¢	$536.11	$524.21	-$11.9	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
fraj0la	Yesavg 55¢	$500	$486.36	-$13.64	63% 224-129 (353)
us391CTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$430.3	$442.82	+$12.51	51% 1611-1558 (3169)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.68	+$0.13	54% 5914-5009 (10923)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.49	$1.74	+$0.25	50% 31550-31196 (62746)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,785.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$12.62

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$536.11

Value

$524.21

PnL

-$11.9

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$486.36

PnL

-$13.64

Record

63%

224-129 (353)

us391CTR

Invested

$430.3

Value

$442.82

PnL

+$12.51

Record

51%

1611-1558 (3169)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

5914-5009 (10923)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.