Will Amarante FC win on 2026-10-26?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$144.38
93¢ → 96.6¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93¢ | $1.0K | $879.88 | -$142.64 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $131.45 | $115.74 | -$15.71 | 50% 23388-23002 (46390) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 7¢ | $74.73 | $58.72 | -$16.01 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 94¢ | $56.71 | $57.02 | +$0.3 | |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $5.48 | $4.74 | -$0.74 | 49% 18089-18501 (36590) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.98 | $4.23 | -$0.75 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3.34 | $3.62 | +$0.28 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2 | $1.4 | -$0.6 | 52% 5773-5386 (11159) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1 | $0.98 | -$0.02 | 54% 5914-5009 (10923) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.87 | $0.96 | +$0.09 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
Invested
$1,022.52
Value
$879.88
PnL
-$142.64
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$131.45
Value
$115.74
PnL
-$15.71
Record
50%
23388-23002 (46390)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.48
Value
$4.74
PnL
-$0.74
Record
49%
18089-18501 (36590)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.23
PnL
-$0.75
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$3.34
Value
$3.62
PnL
+$0.28
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
52%
5773-5386 (11159)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
5914-5009 (10923)
Invested
$0.87
Value
$0.96
PnL
+$0.09
Record
49%
11291-11571 (22862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.