Will UD Leiria win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$2.1K
$112.48
74.6¢ → 79¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO gotozer0 | Noavg 78.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$14.38 | 65% 225-120 (345) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $220.65 | $319.95 | +$99.3 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $1.05 | -$1.2 | 55% 4855-4037 (8892) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.