Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CD Tondela win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 22¢ · $331 held · ended Oct 25

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$330.93

Combined PnL

-$139.68

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 21.5¢

-54% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$190.38

Total Shares773

Combined PnL-$171.76

No2 traders

Total Value$140.55

Total Shares209

Combined PnL+$32.07

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 49.8¢	$323.18	$146.03	-$177.16	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 52¢	$118.72	$135.98	+$32.64	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$24.6	$23.2	-$1.4	50% 7751-7812 (15563)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$12.4	$19.2	+$6.8	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$5.12	$4.56	-$0.56	55% 4838-4027 (8865)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$1.96	$1.96	+$0	58% 1451-1066 (2517)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$323.18

Value

$146.03

PnL

-$177.16

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$118.72

Value

$135.98

PnL

+$32.64

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.6

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$1.4

Record

50%

7751-7812 (15563)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.4

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$6.8

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$0.56

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.96

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.