Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.8K
-$5.87
92.9¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JI jiafan | Noavg 93¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$11.64 | 60% 1402-928 (2330) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $649.46 | $641.95 | -$7.51 | 89% 4346-536 (4882) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $72.93 | $69.01 | -$0.53 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
 Car | Noavg 85¢ | $101.31 | $40 | +$1.93 | 67% 4103-1984 (6087) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.3¢ | $63.24 | $25.12 | +$11.88 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
Invested
$1,082.29
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$11.64
Record
60%
1402-928 (2330)
Invested
$649.46
Value
$641.95
PnL
-$7.51
Record
89%
4346-536 (4882)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$72.93
Value
$69.01
PnL
-$0.53
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
CarInvested
$101.31
Value
$40
PnL
+$1.93
Record
67%
4103-1984 (6087)
Invested
$63.24
Value
$25.12
PnL
+$11.88
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.