Sporting CP vs. Académico de Viseu FC: O/U 5.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 98¢ · $500 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$499.84
$43.24
85.9¢ → 97.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 85¢ | $339.99 | $390.79 | +$50.8 | 56% 6455-5169 (11624) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 95¢ | $49.71 | $48.38 | -$1.33 | 50% 7903-7970 (15873) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 3.1¢ | $47.59 | $38.74 | -$8.85 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 85.8¢ | $19.29 | $21.92 | +$2.63 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
0xheavy888Invested
$339.99
Value
$390.79
PnL
+$50.8
Record
56%
6455-5169 (11624)
Invested
$49.71
Value
$48.38
PnL
-$1.33
Record
50%
7903-7970 (15873)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$47.59
Value
$38.74
PnL
-$8.85
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.29
Value
$21.92
PnL
+$2.63
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.