Sporting CP vs. Académico de Viseu FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$41.14
50.8¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Overavg 50.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$25.75 | 52% 1346-1266 (2612) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 50.2¢ | $587.75 | $603.29 | +$15.54 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 51.9¢ | $494.66 | $484 | -$10.66 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.9¢ | $319.33 | $310.42 | -$8.91 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $175.33 | $173.58 | -$1.75 | |
BE berlinskies | Overavg 51.3¢ | $105 | $105.38 | +$0.38 | 57% 4708-3514 (8222) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.3¢ | $33.99 | $33.46 | -$0.53 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
us391Invested
$2,363.41
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$25.75
Record
52%
1346-1266 (2612)
Invested
$587.75
Value
$603.29
PnL
+$15.54
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$494.66
Value
$484
PnL
-$10.66
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Both legs:
Invested
$105
Value
$105.38
PnL
+$0.38
Record
57%
4708-3514 (8222)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$33.99
Value
$33.46
PnL
-$0.53
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.