Sporting CP vs. Académico de Viseu FC: O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 88¢ · $468 held · ends Oct 25

Over88¢Under12¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$468.15

Combined PnL

-$0.1

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 88¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$457.59

Total Shares520

Combined PnL-$0

Under2 traders

Total Value$10.55

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$0.1

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Overavg 88¢	$351.99	$351.99	-$0	56% 6365-5100 (11465)
KL kleomarcus	Overavg 88¢	$105.6	$105.6	+$0	63% 1520-912 (2432)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 12.1¢	$13.35	$8.45	-$0.1	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$2.1	$2.1	+$0	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$351.99

Value

$351.99

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

6365-5100 (11465)

kleomarcus

Over

Invested

$105.6

Value

$105.6

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

1520-912 (2432)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.35

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.