Sporting CP vs. Académico de Viseu FC: Sporting CP O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 52¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$411.11

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 52¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,661

Combined PnL+$324.98

Under2 traders

Total Value$367.55

Total Shares710

Combined PnL+$86.13

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Overavg 51.8¢	$4.6K	$2.7K	+$349.98	54% 960-821 (1781)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 36.8¢	$196.22	$255.72	+$59.5	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 48¢	$85.2	$111.83	+$26.63	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
KL kleomarcus<$100	Overavg 77¢	$77	$52	-$25	63% 1530-917 (2447)

JohnLKellyJr

Over

Invested

$4,560.87

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$349.98

Record

54%

960-821 (1781)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$196.22

Value

$255.72

PnL

+$59.5

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$85.2

Value

$111.83

PnL

+$26.63

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

kleomarcus<$100

Over

Invested

$77

Value

$52

PnL

-$25

Record

63%

1530-917 (2447)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.