Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Académico de Viseu FC (29%) · Académico de Viseu FC at 77¢ · $360 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Académico de Viseu FC
7
Académico de Viseu FC 29%
$359.74
-$60.87
75.1¢ → 76.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAcadémico de Viseu FC at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Sporting CPavg 51.4¢ | $132.91 | $144.84 | +$11.94 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
UP UpTheBlues | Académico de Viseu FCavg 75.1¢ | $160.19 | $93.83 | -$66.36 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Sporting CPavg 58¢ | $55.1 | $53.2 | -$1.9 | 65% 2863-1511 (4374) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100 | Sporting CPavg 59¢ | $50 | $47.46 | -$1.27 | 51% 242-232 (474) |
FF ff3364CTR<$100 | Sporting CPavg 52¢ | $13.94 | $14.41 | +$0.46 | 51% 693-667 (1360) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Sporting CPavg 57.9¢ | $168.25 | $3.28 | -$1.94 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
 RN1<$100 | Académico de Viseu FCavg 73¢ | $4.51 | $2.72 | -$1.79 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
Invested
$132.91
Value
$144.84
PnL
+$11.94
Record
50%
8992-8924 (17916)
Invested
$160.19
Value
$93.83
PnL
-$66.36
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$55.1
Value
$53.2
PnL
-$1.9
Record
65%
2863-1511 (4374)
cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$47.46
PnL
-$1.27
Record
51%
242-232 (474)
Invested
$13.94
Value
$14.41
PnL
+$0.46
Record
51%
693-667 (1360)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$168.25
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$1.94
Record
58%
32272-23432 (55704)
RN1<$100Invested
$4.51
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$1.79
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.