Exact Score: Sporting CP 1 - 3 Académico de Viseu FC?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$49.13

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,049

Combined PnL-$49.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.61

Total Shares1,031

Combined PnL+$0.59

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 97.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$49.72	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$31.9	$28.6	-$3.3	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$19.23	$23.45	+$4.22	50% 7903-7970 (15873)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$1.89	$1.56	-$0.33	56% 1802-1398 (3200)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,992.17

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$49.72

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.9

Value

$28.6

PnL

-$3.3

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.23

Value

$23.45

PnL

+$4.22

Record

50%

7903-7970 (15873)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.33

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.