Exact Score: Sporting CP 1 - 2 Académico de Viseu FC?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$130.33
38.9¢ → 58.6¢
+51% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $751.27 | $669.37 | -$81.89 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 94¢ | $710.2 | $442.67 | -$267.53 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $41.07 | $226.71 | +$185.64 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 25¢ | $102.98 | $241.37 | +$138.39 | 50% 7903-7970 (15873) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000 | Noavg 58.6¢ | $170.28 | $170.28 | -$0 | 42% 1674-2354 (4028) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 62.7¢ | $23.71 | $15.65 | -$8.06 | 68% 31996-15360 (47356) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$751.27
Value
$669.37
PnL
-$81.89
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.98
Value
$241.37
PnL
+$138.39
Record
50%
7903-7970 (15873)
Invested
$170.28
Value
$170.28
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
1674-2354 (4028)
Invested
$23.71
Value
$15.65
PnL
-$8.06
Record
68%
31996-15360 (47356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.