Will Sporting CP vs. Académico de Viseu FC end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$34.62

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 71.5¢

-12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$389.16

Total Shares1,543

Combined PnL-$4.57

No5 traders

Total Value$555.8

Total Shares631

Combined PnL+$39.19

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$586.92	$573.72	-$13.2	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$419.29	$403.79	-$15.5
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$167.63	$169.93	+$2.3
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$416.01	$483.02	+$67.01	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.2¢	$168.54	$263.34	+$94.8
└ No leg	Noavg 80.5¢	$247.47	$219.68	-$27.79
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$258.11	$258.11	+$0	50% 8992-8924 (17916)
0xheavy888	Noavg 88¢	$248.97	$246.14	-$2.83	56% 6426-5142 (11568)
BE Betziko	Noavg 71.4¢	$178.5	$217.5	+$39	55% 4953-4129 (9082)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$123.53	$119.12	-$4.41	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 86¢	$83.36	$84.25	+$2.23	53% 13662-12114 (25776)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$10.27	$10.27	+$0.4	61% 4694-2945 (7639)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$4.35	+$0.45	58% 16247-11869 (28116)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.19	$3.56	+$0.35	55% 1476-1225 (2701)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$2.22	$1.66	-$0.56	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$586.92

Value

$573.72

PnL

-$13.2

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Both legs:

Yes$419.2927¢-$15.5

No$167.6373¢+$2.3

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$416.01

Value

$483.02

PnL

+$67.01

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

Both legs:

Yes$168.5418.2¢+$94.8

No$247.4780.5¢-$27.79

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$258.11

Value

$258.11

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

0xheavy888

Invested

$248.97

Value

$246.14

PnL

-$2.83

Record

56%

6426-5142 (11568)

Betziko

Invested

$178.5

Value

$217.5

PnL

+$39

Record

55%

4953-4129 (9082)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.53

Value

$119.12

PnL

-$4.41

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$83.36

Value

$84.25

PnL

+$2.23

Record

53%

13662-12114 (25776)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.27

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$0.4

Record

61%

4694-2945 (7639)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

16247-11869 (28116)

merod<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$0.35

Record

55%

1476-1225 (2701)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$0.56

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.