Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sporting CP vs. Académico de Viseu FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 12¢ · $897 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 57%
$896.61
-$983.3
53.6¢ → 12¢
-78% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $298.64 | $468.98 | +$170.34 | 51% 6859-6549 (13408) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 53.2¢ | $1.3K | $277.01 | $-1.1K | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
RO Rocky31 | Yesavg 78.9¢ | $97.28 | $109.7 | +$12.43 | 72% 1275-488 (1763) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 57.7¢ | $130.78 | $24.94 | -$105.84 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $3.86 | $9.03 | +$5.17 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $15.79 | $4.16 | +$0.63 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $5.04 | $2.8 | -$2.25 | 57% 1726-1316 (3042) |
Invested
$298.64
Value
$468.98
PnL
+$170.34
Record
51%
6859-6549 (13408)
Invested
$1,340.79
Value
$277.01
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$97.28
Value
$109.7
PnL
+$12.43
Record
72%
1275-488 (1763)
Invested
$130.78
Value
$24.94
PnL
-$105.84
Record
50%
8992-8924 (17916)
RN1<$100Invested
$3.86
Value
$9.03
PnL
+$5.17
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$15.79
Value
$4.16
PnL
+$0.63
Record
58%
32272-23432 (55704)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$2.25
Record
57%
1726-1316 (3042)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.