Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-10-25?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 93¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$5.4K
-$0.84
93¢ → 92.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 93¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | -$0 | 69% 4286-1924 (6210) |
MR MrDouche | Noavg 93¢ | $581.24 | $581.24 | -$0 | 74% 829-296 (1125) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 93¢ | $372 | $372 | -$0 | 56% 6365-5100 (11465) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $330.52 | $331.08 | +$0.56 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 92.9¢ | $311.71 | $311.9 | +$1.87 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $86.22 | $82.95 | -$3.27 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $5.76 | $5.76 | +$0 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$3,720
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$0
Record
69%
4286-1924 (6210)
Invested
$581.24
Value
$581.24
PnL
-$0
Record
74%
829-296 (1125)
0xheavy888Invested
$372
Value
$372
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
6365-5100 (11465)
VeryLucky888Invested
$330.52
Value
$331.08
PnL
+$0.56
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$311.71
Value
$311.9
PnL
+$1.87
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
Invested
$86.22
Value
$82.95
PnL
-$3.27
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.76
Value
$5.76
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.