Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 2.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$2.83

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 84.5¢

+62% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,406

Combined PnL-$4.04

Over2 traders

Total Value$130.85

Total Shares285

Combined PnL+$1.21

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Underavg 51¢	$576.31	$565.01	-$11.3	52% 1362-1272 (2634)
0xheavy888	Underavg 52.5¢	$210	$200	-$10	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
FO foooool	Underavg 55.1¢	$166.17	$184.14	+$17.97	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 52.3¢	$204	$162.29	-$6.71	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
RN1CTR	Overavg 45¢	$110.53	$111.74	+$1.21	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 52¢	$53.56	$51.5	-$2.06	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$38.7	$49.35	+$10.65	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Underavg 53¢	$46.28	$43.66	-$2.62	57% 4484-3315 (7799)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$19.11	$19.11	+$0	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.59	$2.62	+$0.02	50% 8893-8828 (17721)

us391

Under

Invested

$576.31

Value

$565.01

PnL

-$11.3

Record

52%

1362-1272 (2634)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$210

Value

$200

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

foooool

Under

Invested

$166.17

Value

$184.14

PnL

+$17.97

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$204

Value

$162.29

PnL

-$6.71

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$110.53

Value

$111.74

PnL

+$1.21

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$53.56

Value

$51.5

PnL

-$2.06

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$38.7

Value

$49.35

PnL

+$10.65

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Under

Invested

$46.28

Value

$43.66

PnL

-$2.62

Record

57%

4484-3315 (7799)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.11

Value

$19.11

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.