Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 60¢ · $234 held · ended Oct 25

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$234.37

Combined PnL

$10.21

Smart Money Entry

29.8¢ → 60¢

+101% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$222.1

Total Shares705

Combined PnL+$11.69

Over2 traders

Total Value$12.27

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$1.48

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 27¢	$131.76	$129.32	-$2.44	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 43.7¢	$54.81	$68.4	+$13.59	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 25¢	$12.5	$13.25	+$0.75	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 27¢	$11.34	$11.13	-$0.21	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 73¢	$8.76	$8.82	+$0.06	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 71¢	$4.99	$3.45	-$1.54	55% 43817-36057 (79874)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$131.76

Value

$129.32

PnL

-$2.44

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$54.81

Value

$68.4

PnL

+$13.59

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$12.5

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$11.34

Value

$11.13

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.76

Value

$8.82

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.99

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$1.54

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.