Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$6.81
75.1¢ → 78.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $306.13 | $308.12 | +$1.99 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 76.1¢ | $297.56 | $297.02 | -$0.54 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.1¢ | $218.37 | $222.29 | +$3.92 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $79.19 | $74.74 | -$4.45 | |
FO foooool | Noavg 77.4¢ | $188.61 | $191.21 | +$2.6 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 74¢ | $166.92 | $169.17 | +$2.26 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $44.58 | $44.58 | +$0 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $2.72 | $2.74 | +$0.02 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $2.3 | $2.25 | -$0.05 | 55% 4880-4051 (8931) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.25 | +$0 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$306.13
Value
$308.12
PnL
+$1.99
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$297.56
Value
$297.02
PnL
-$0.54
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Both legs:
Invested
$188.61
Value
$191.21
PnL
+$2.6
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Invested
$166.92
Value
$169.17
PnL
+$2.26
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$44.58
Value
$44.58
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.72
Value
$2.74
PnL
+$0.02
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
55%
4880-4051 (8931)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.