Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 2 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 47¢ · $81K held · ended Oct 25

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$80.6K

Combined PnL

$688.01

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 46.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 16 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$40.7K

Total Shares87,902

Combined PnL+$322.28

No14 traders

Total Value$39.6K

Total Shares72,735

Combined PnL+$365.74

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcottCTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$32.4K	$32.8K	+$409.45	49% 98-103 (201)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 54¢	$10.7K	$10.8K	+$99.38	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	-$87.18	50% 194-191 (385)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 54.2¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$30.1	67% 279-139 (418)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 53¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$117.08	50% 1855-1850 (3705)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 54¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$31.27	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 54¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$28.97	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 54¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$27.5	51% 998-954 (1952)
CA Cannae	Noavg 54.1¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$20.65	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
Reformedx	Noavg 54¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$20	52% 717-650 (1367)
RN1	Noavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$17.6	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 53.6¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	+$9.51	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 53¢	$678.63	$691.44	+$6.4	57% 4484-3315 (7799)
0xheavy888	Noavg 53.5¢	$428	$436	+$8	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
HRTrading	Noavg 54¢	$411.17	$415.02	+$3.85	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$336.64	$338.02	+$1.38	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.2¢	$213.08	$214.3	+$1.23
└ No leg	Noavg 54.4¢	$123.56	$123.71	+$0.15
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 53¢	$44.66	$45.08	+$0.42	51% 6631-6378 (13009)

theowalcottCTR

Yes

Invested

$32,357.72

Value

$32.8K

PnL

+$409.45

Record

49%

98-103 (201)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$10,733.46

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$99.38

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,020.11

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$87.18

Record

50%

194-191 (385)

xwingboy

Invested

$4,939.09

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$30.1

Record

67%

279-139 (418)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$4,136.66

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$117.08

Record

50%

1855-1850 (3705)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,740.25

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$31.27

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$3,128.49

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$28.97

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$2,970

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$27.5

Record

51%

998-954 (1952)

Cannae

Invested

$2,760.1

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$20.65

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

Reformedx

Invested

$2,159.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$20

Record

52%

717-650 (1367)

RN1

Invested

$1,900.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$17.6

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,503.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.51

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$678.63

Value

$691.44

PnL

+$6.4

Record

57%

4484-3315 (7799)

0xheavy888

Invested

$428

Value

$436

PnL

+$8

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

HRTrading

Invested

$411.17

Value

$415.02

PnL

+$3.85

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$336.64

Value

$338.02

PnL

+$1.38

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Both legs:

Yes$213.0845.2¢+$1.23

No$123.5654.4¢+$0.15

foooool<$100

Invested

$44.66

Value

$45.08

PnL

+$0.42

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 16 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.