Will Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 61¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$15.5K
-$56.11
68.5¢ → 60.5¢
-12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 68.4¢ | $8.0K | $8.2K | +$244.04 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
RO robustmstCTR | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $6.2K | $5.8K | -$335.45 | 47% 85-94 (179) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 69¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$40.48 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 70.3¢ | $224.1 | $217.53 | -$6.57 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $50.1 | $51.17 | +$1.07 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $24.09 | $24.49 | +$0.4 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $9.9 | $9.83 | -$0.07 | 55% 4880-4051 (8931) |
RN1Invested
$7,955.55
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$244.04
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$6,179.75
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$335.45
Record
47%
85-94 (179)
Invested
$1,117.11
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$40.48
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$224.1
Value
$217.53
PnL
-$6.57
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$50.1
Value
$51.17
PnL
+$1.07
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
Invested
$24.09
Value
$24.49
PnL
+$0.4
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.83
PnL
-$0.07
Record
55%
4880-4051 (8931)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.