Will SC Braga win on 2026-10-25?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 63¢ · $114K held · ended Oct 25

Yes63¢No37¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$114.5K

Combined PnL

$202

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 62.5¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$43.9K

Total Shares120,399

Combined PnL+$251.88

Yes11 traders

Total Value$70.6K

Total Shares110,760

Combined PnL-$49.88

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcottCTR	Noavg 36.3¢	$43.5K	$43.8K	+$255.8	49% 98-103 (201)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 63.3¢	$31.2K	$31.3K	+$84.85	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1	Yesavg 63.4¢	$15.9K	$15.9K	+$25.03	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
KY Kyn008	Yesavg 63.8¢	$13.7K	$13.7K	-$60.07	50% 194-191 (385)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 63.6¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$4.15	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423d	Yesavg 66.5¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$187.24	51% 552-521 (1073)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 64.5¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$20.48	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
HRTrading	Yesavg 63.4¢	$928.86	$1.0K	+$109.66	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 63.3¢	$760	$762	+$2	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Yesavg 63¢	$499.99	$503.96	+$3.97	59% 3066-2120 (5186)
latvian.demon	Yesavg 64¢	$218	$216.3	-$1.7	53% 548-480 (1028)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$74.58	$65.54	-$9.04	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$47.26	$51.43	+$4.17	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 66.9¢	$34.56	$32.81	-$1.75	53% 1882-1643 (3525)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 34.2¢	$11.49	$12.43	+$0.95	49% 11054-11399 (22453)

theowalcottCTR

Invested

$43,546.52

Value

$43.8K

PnL

+$255.8

Record

49%

98-103 (201)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$31,247.78

Value

$31.3K

PnL

+$84.85

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$15,852.4

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$25.03

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Kyn008

Yes

Invested

$13,722

Value

$13.7K

PnL

-$60.07

Record

50%

194-191 (385)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$3,786.84

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$4.15

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

0xbf2342fds234423d

Yes

Invested

$2,113.89

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$187.24

Record

51%

552-521 (1073)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$1,772.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$20.48

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$928.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$109.66

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$760

Value

$762

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

GamblingAddict12345

Yes

Invested

$499.99

Value

$503.96

PnL

+$3.97

Record

59%

3066-2120 (5186)

latvian.demon

Yes

Invested

$218

Value

$216.3

PnL

-$1.7

Record

53%

548-480 (1028)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$74.58

Value

$65.54

PnL

-$9.04

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$47.26

Value

$51.43

PnL

+$4.17

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.56

Value

$32.81

PnL

-$1.75

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$11.49

Value

$12.43

PnL

+$0.95

Record

49%

11054-11399 (22453)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.