Will CD Nacional win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 87¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$27.05

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,582

Combined PnL+$0.79

Yes6 traders

Total Value$699.38

Total Shares5,168

Combined PnL+$26.26

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Noavg 87¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$0.2	50% 194-191 (385)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$539.38	$559.71	+$20.33	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$92.33	$96.43	+$4.1	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$66.19	$66.38	+$0.19	53% 1882-1643 (3525)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 86¢	$34.4	$34.8	+$0.4	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$33.49	$34.78	+$1.29	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$5.42	$5.78	+$0.36	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.85	$2	+$0.15	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$0.65	$0.68	+$0.03	55% 4880-4051 (8931)

Kyn008

Invested

$3,884.65

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

194-191 (385)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$539.38

Value

$559.71

PnL

+$20.33

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.33

Value

$96.43

PnL

+$4.1

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$66.19

Value

$66.38

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$34.4

Value

$34.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.49

Value

$34.78

PnL

+$1.29

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0.36

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.