Estoril Praia vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$295.69

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 90¢

+75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,034

Combined PnL+$251.15

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,373

Combined PnL+$44.54

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$863.01	$1.0K	+$140.9	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
RN1	Underavg 44¢	$800.1	$782.6	-$17.5	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 84.6¢	$304.47	$323.73	+$19.26	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 16.6¢	$45.36	$155.61	+$110.25	52% 16312-14865 (31177)
FO foooool	Underavg 50¢	$90.23	$151.92	+$61.69	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 87¢	$37.41	$18.49	-$18.92	54% 13824-11602 (25426)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$863.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$140.9

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

RN1

Under

Invested

$800.1

Value

$782.6

PnL

-$17.5

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$304.47

Value

$323.73

PnL

+$19.26

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$45.36

Value

$155.61

PnL

+$110.25

Record

52%

16312-14865 (31177)

foooool

Under

Invested

$90.23

Value

$151.92

PnL

+$61.69

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$37.41

Value

$18.49

PnL

-$18.92

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.