Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Estoril Praia vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 3.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 14%
$1.9K
$89.51
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dartanyan150CTR | Overavg 65¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$339.99 | 69% 205-94 (299) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 39.7¢ | $363.9 | $164.96 | -$198.94 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 39.1¢ | $49.25 | $29.9 | -$19.34 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50.3¢ | $50.98 | $19.39 | -$31.59 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $6.91 | $5.92 | -$0.99 | 50% 7770-7819 (15589) |
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $5.85 | +$0.05 | 72% 1833-723 (2556) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $0.66 | $0.99 | +$0.33 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
Invested
$1,299.98
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$339.99
Record
69%
205-94 (299)
Invested
$363.9
Value
$164.96
PnL
-$198.94
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$49.25
Value
$29.9
PnL
-$19.34
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$50.98
Value
$19.39
PnL
-$31.59
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Invested
$6.91
Value
$5.92
PnL
-$0.99
Record
50%
7770-7819 (15589)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$5.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
72%
1833-723 (2556)
RN1<$100Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.33
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.