Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$493.17

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 99.6¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,027

Combined PnL-$147.58

No2 traders

Total Value$153.17

Total Shares3,063

Combined PnL-$345.59

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 86¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$140.42	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 98¢	$929.54	$953.58	+$24.03	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
FO foooool	Yesavg 89.6¢	$384.36	$332.97	-$51.39	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
PA pauleta23	Yesavg 85.1¢	$145.48	$162.41	+$16.93	71% 17682-7180 (24862)
RN1CTR	Noavg 17.2¢	$493.14	$143.14	-$350	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 23¢	$33.81	$139.64	-$2.2	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Yesavg 97.9¢	$30.98	$30.06	-$0.92	53% 560-505 (1065)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 2.8¢	$5.61	$10.03	+$4.41	50% 7770-7819 (15589)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 99.2¢	$10.02	$9.59	-$0.42	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.88	$8.93	+$6.82	53% 13585-12026 (25611)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,588.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$140.42

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$929.54

Value

$953.58

PnL

+$24.03

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$384.36

Value

$332.97

PnL

-$51.39

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

pauleta23

Yes

Invested

$145.48

Value

$162.41

PnL

+$16.93

Record

71%

17682-7180 (24862)

RN1CTR

Invested

$493.14

Value

$143.14

PnL

-$350

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$33.81

Value

$139.64

PnL

-$2.2

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

RichieRicher<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.98

Value

$30.06

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

560-505 (1065)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$5.61

Value

$10.03

PnL

+$4.41

Record

50%

7770-7819 (15589)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.02

Value

$9.59

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$8.93

PnL

+$6.82

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.