Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Estoril Praia vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 18¢ · $561 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$561.46
-$2.75
Research grade
AvoidYes at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $385.96 | $318.93 | -$67.03 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $257.59 | $207 | -$50.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 94¢ | $128.37 | $111.93 | -$16.44 | |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $304.26 | $237.88 | -$66.37 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 93¢ | $179.36 | $158.14 | -$21.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.2¢ | $124.9 | $79.74 | -$45.16 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3.15 | $3.15 | -$2.01 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $2.24 | $1.5 | -$0.74 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$385.96
Value
$318.93
PnL
-$67.03
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Both legs:
Invested
$304.26
Value
$237.88
PnL
-$66.37
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$2.01
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.24
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$0.74
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.