CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 70¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 26

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

-$60.73

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 69.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,863

Combined PnL-$58.62

Over2 traders

Total Value$55.89

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$2.1

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (2 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 29.3¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$131.49	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.3¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$71.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.9¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$59.61
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 71.1¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$59.71	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 27.2¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$182.21	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
└ Over leg	Overavg 27.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$143.94
└ Under leg	Underavg 67¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$38.27
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 66.4¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$107.62	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$26.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 26¢	$351.35	$432.43	+$81.08
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 65.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$66.41	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.1¢	$852.74	$910.45	+$57.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.1¢	$594.42	$603.12	+$8.7
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 68.3¢	$398.47	$426.62	+$28.15	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68.3¢	$211.09	$214.89	+$3.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 27¢	$187.38	$211.73	+$24.35
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$52.16	$50.67	-$1.49	50% 3297-3251 (6548)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 63¢	$33.07	$34.64	+$1.57	56% 6708-5376 (12084)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 72¢	$5.9	$5.41	-$0.49	53% 1995-1773 (3768)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$5.83	$5.22	-$0.61	61% 8687-5628 (14315)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,336.94

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$131.49

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

Both legs:

Over$1,811.8329.3¢+$71.88

Under$1,525.1166.9¢+$59.61

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,724.84

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$59.71

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,204.95

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$182.21

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

Both legs:

Over$1,179.1827.2¢+$143.94

Under$1,025.7767¢+$38.27

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,451.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$107.62

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

Both legs:

Under$1,099.7566.4¢+$26.53

Over$351.3526¢+$81.08

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,447.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$66.41

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

Both legs:

Under$852.7465.1¢+$57.71

Over$594.4230.1¢+$8.7

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$398.47

Value

$426.62

PnL

+$28.15

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

Both legs:

Under$211.0968.3¢+$3.8

Over$187.3827¢+$24.35

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.16

Value

$50.67

PnL

-$1.49

Record

50%

3297-3251 (6548)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$33.07

Value

$34.64

PnL

+$1.57

Record

56%

6708-5376 (12084)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.83

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$0.61

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (2 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.