Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 44¢ · $150 held · ends Oct 26

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$150.01

Combined PnL

$3.48

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 43.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$146.3

Total Shares311

Combined PnL+$3.48

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.71

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$145	$92.63	+$2.23	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$24.25	$24.25	-$0	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$15.93	$16.64	+$0.71	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$12.24	$12.78	+$0.54	50% 10665-10792 (21457)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 53¢	$3.71	$3.71	+$0	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$145

Value

$92.63

PnL

+$2.23

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.25

Value

$24.25

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.93

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$0.71

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.24

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$0.54

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.71

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.