CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 82¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 26

Over82¢Under18¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$15.57

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 81.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares14,399

Combined PnL-$16.54

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,594

Combined PnL+$32.11

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Aleksey1993	Overavg 80.7¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	-$26.95	77% 144-44 (188)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 80.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10.41	51% 21726-21125 (42851)
RN1CTR	Underavg 19¢	$817.72	$860.76	+$43.04	54% 51398-43356 (94754)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 19¢	$153.4	$155.67	+$2.28	50% 209-206 (415)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 21.1¢	$188.39	$89.34	-$13.2	58% 37344-27188 (64532)

Aleksey1993

Over

Invested

$9,993.76

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$26.95

Record

77%

144-44 (188)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,618

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10.41

Record

51%

21726-21125 (42851)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$817.72

Value

$860.76

PnL

+$43.04

Record

54%

51398-43356 (94754)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$153.4

Value

$155.67

PnL

+$2.28

Record

50%

209-206 (415)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$188.39

Value

$89.34

PnL

-$13.2

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.