Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: CD Santa Clara O/U 0.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$10.53

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 48¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,494

Combined PnL+$12.38

Over1 trader

Total Value$63.97

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$1.85

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 48¢	$960	$960	+$10	53% 5236-4559 (9795)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$182.03	$182.68	+$0.66	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
SA Saber-greed<$100	Overavg 53¢	$65.2	$63.97	-$1.85	59% 2422-1677 (4099)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$53.19	$54.35	+$1.72	51% 5993-5751 (11744)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$960

Value

$960

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5236-4559 (9795)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$182.03

Value

$182.68

PnL

+$0.66

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

Saber-greed<$100

Over

Invested

$65.2

Value

$63.97

PnL

-$1.85

Record

59%

2422-1677 (4099)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.19

Value

$54.35

PnL

+$1.72

Record

51%

5993-5751 (11744)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.