Spread: CD Santa Clara (-1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sport Lisboa e Benfica (50%) · Sport Lisboa e Benfica at 98¢ · $46K held · ended Oct 26

CD Santa Clara2¢Sport Lisboa e Benfica98¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Consensus Traders

Sport Lisboa e Benfica 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.3K

Combined PnL

$-5.5K

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 98.3¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CD Santa Clara2%

Sport Lisboa e Benfica98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sport Lisboa e Benfica3 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares50,055

Combined PnL$-16.0K

CD Santa Clara3 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares32,804

Combined PnL+$10.5K

Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 50%CD Santa Clara — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 97.4¢	$48.6K	$32.7K	$-15.9K	— 13-0 (13)
NooseracCTR	CD Santa Claraavg 2.6¢	$780	$10.3K	+$9.6K	52% 5625-5180 (10805)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 96.5¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$343.93	51% 22075-21479 (43554)
└ Sport Lisboa e Benfica leg	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 96.5¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$567.72
└ CD Santa Clara leg	CD Santa Claraavg 2.3¢	$65.87	$977.52	+$911.65
LU LuckyLooCTR	CD Santa Claraavg 2.9¢	$79.85	$956.98	+$877.13	50% 11010-11181 (22191)
RN1	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 96.5¢	$125.45	$85.15	-$40.3	54% 52350-44240 (96590)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 97.4¢	$36.42	$36.32	-$0.1	60% 40137-26767 (66904)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	CD Santa Claraavg 2.9¢	$2	$10.45	+$9.77	53% 1995-1773 (3768)

999585

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$48,599.28

Value

$32.7K

PnL

$-15.9K

Record

—

13-0 (13)

NooseracCTR

CD Santa Clara

Invested

$780

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

52%

5625-5180 (10805)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$1,832.73

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$343.93

Record

51%

22075-21479 (43554)

Both legs:

Sport Lisboa e Benfica$1,766.8696.5¢-$567.72

CD Santa Clara$65.872.3¢+$911.65

LuckyLooCTR

CD Santa Clara

Invested

$79.85

Value

$956.98

PnL

+$877.13

Record

50%

11010-11181 (22191)

RN1

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$125.45

Value

$85.15

PnL

-$40.3

Record

54%

52350-44240 (96590)

UpTheBlues<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$36.42

Value

$36.32

PnL

-$0.1

Record

60%

40137-26767 (66904)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

CD Santa Clara

Invested

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$9.77

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

Research grade

NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sport Lisboa e Benfica wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.