Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CD Santa Clara (80%) · CD Santa Clara at 56¢ · $301 held · ends Oct 26

Sport Lisboa e Benfica45¢CD Santa Clara55¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Santa Clara

Consensus Traders

CD Santa Clara 80%

Total Value

$300.59

Combined PnL

$1.93

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 55.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Santa Clara at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Santa Clara

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sport Lisboa e Benfica45%

CD Santa Clara56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Santa Clara4 traders

Total Value$299.48

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$1.9

Sport Lisboa e Benfica1 trader

Total Value$1.12

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.04

CD Santa Clara — 80%Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	CD Santa Claraavg 54¢	$379.48	$250.64	+$2.34	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	CD Santa Claraavg 55¢	$37.61	$37.52	-$0.09	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	CD Santa Claraavg 55¢	$9.72	$9.45	-$0.27	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	CD Santa Claraavg 56¢	$1.95	$1.87	-$0.09	55% 1577-1301 (2878)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 45¢	$1.08	$1.12	+$0.04	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

VeryLucky888

CD Santa Clara

Invested

$379.48

Value

$250.64

PnL

+$2.34

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

UpTheBlues<$100

CD Santa Clara

Invested

$37.61

Value

$37.52

PnL

-$0.09

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

GoalLineGhost<$100

CD Santa Clara

Invested

$9.72

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$0.27

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

CD Santa Clara

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.09

Record

55%

1577-1301 (2878)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralCD Santa Clara at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

CD Santa Clara

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Santa Clara wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.