Exact Score: CD Santa Clara 1 - 2 Sport Lisboa e Benfica?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 59¢ · $924 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$923.82
$668.96
16.7¢ → 59¢
+254% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $156.87 | $456.07 | +$299.2 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
 HRTrading | Yesavg 10¢ | $56.6 | $393.37 | +$336.77 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 26.2¢ | $41.39 | $74.38 | +$32.99 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.