Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 38¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$311.26

Smart Money Entry

21.3¢ → 37.5¢

+76% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares6,069

Combined PnL+$423.22

No4 traders

Total Value$840.26

Total Shares1,082

Combined PnL-$111.96

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 22.7¢	$894.26	$1.4K	+$515.95	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
RN1	Noavg 80¢	$695.29	$569.05	-$126.25	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 16.3¢	$245.83	$228.29	-$17.54	53% 15316-13530 (28846)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 82¢	$156.62	$162.35	+$5.73	53% 5300-4639 (9939)
0X 0x3520f4198a03313718b801421420010Be0801FA0-1771701083619CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$150	$112.5	-$37.5	32% 77-161 (238)
poshposh	Noavg 62¢	$96.81	$104.61	+$7.81	61% 8687-5628 (14315)
0X 0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$65	$31.45	-$33.55	23% 52-178 (230)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$14.46	$14.05	-$0.41	53% 1995-1773 (3768)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$5.63	$5.4	-$0.23	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$4.25	+$0.75	54% 5773-4862 (10635)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$4.79	$2.4	-$2.39	53% 666-602 (1268)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$1.66	$1.73	+$0.07	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.65	$1.13	-$0.52	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.4	$0.75	-$0.65	58% 18001-13242 (31243)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$894.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$515.95

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

RN1

Invested

$695.29

Value

$569.05

PnL

-$126.25

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$245.83

Value

$228.29

PnL

-$17.54

Record

53%

15316-13530 (28846)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$156.62

Value

$162.35

PnL

+$5.73

Record

53%

5300-4639 (9939)

0x3520f4198a03313718b801421420010Be0801FA0-1771701083619CTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

32%

77-161 (238)

poshposh

Invested

$96.81

Value

$104.61

PnL

+$7.81

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65

Value

$31.45

PnL

-$33.55

Record

23%

52-178 (230)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.46

Value

$14.05

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

1995-1773 (3768)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

5773-4862 (10635)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.79

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$2.39

Record

53%

666-602 (1268)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.52

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.65

Record

58%

18001-13242 (31243)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.